Wager
Every wager tells the future.
A decentralized prediction market on Arc — Circle's USDC-native testnet — where markets settle through open, oracle-free resolution instead of paid data feeds.
Built on Arc Testnet · Native USDC · No real funds at risk
Why Wager
Prediction markets shouldn't need a middleman to know the truth.
Existing platforms inherit the limits of the oracles and chains they're built on. Wager resolves markets optimistically — open to anyone, secured by economic incentives, not a subscription.
Paid oracles
Most prediction markets rely on external oracle networks to settle outcomes — a recurring cost and a centralization point baked into every market.
High fees
Settlement and gas costs on general-purpose chains eat into small positions, pricing out casual participants and low-stakes questions.
Slow, opaque resolution
Waiting on a black-box oracle feed leaves markets unresolved for days, with no visibility into how or why an outcome was decided.
How it works
From question to payout, in four steps.
Create
Anyone can spin up a market around a future outcome — pick a question, a deadline, and let it go live.
Bet
Participants stake native USDC on the outcome they believe in. Odds update in real time as positions shift.
Resolve
Once the deadline passes, anyone can propose the outcome. If unchallenged, it settles — no paid oracle required.
Claim
Winning positions redeem their share of the pool directly, instantly, straight to their wallet.
Key features
Built for serious markets, not memes.
0.5% fees
Flat, predictable protocol fee on settled markets — no hidden spreads, no oracle subscription costs.
Optimistic resolution
Markets settle through a propose-and-dispute window instead of a paid oracle feed.
Real-time odds
Live-updating probability charts reflect every position as it's staked.
10 languages
A fully localized interface, built for a global base of participants from day one.
Dark & light mode
A polished interface that adapts to how you like to work, day or night.
Optimistic resolution
No oracle. Just an honest window to be proven wrong.
Every market resolves through a bonded, adversarial process — anyone can propose an outcome, and anyone can challenge it. Bad-faith actors lose their bond; the truth wins.
Propose
After the market closes, anyone can propose the outcome by posting a bond.
Dispute
A challenge window lets anyone contest the proposal by matching the bond.
Arbitrate
Disputed outcomes escalate to arbitration for a final, binding ruling.
Safety net
A backstop mechanism guarantees every market resolves, even at the edges.
Undisputed proposals settle automatically once the challenge window closes.
Disputed proposals escalate to arbitration, with the safety net as final fallback.
Why Arc
A settlement layer built for stable value.
Native USDC
USDC is a first-class asset on Arc, not a bridged token — every wager settles in the same unit of account it's staked in.
Built by Circle
Arc is purpose-built for stablecoin-native finance, backed by the team behind USDC itself.
Predictable fees
Transaction costs stay flat and low, so small positions and frequent settlement stay economically viable.
Open source
Read the code. Fork the contract.